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Intermediate/Advanced Investment Strategies/Lesson 54 of 60

Growth Investing

Buying companies expected to grow faster than the market.

Why it matters

Growth investing is the decision to pay up today for a company whose earnings are expected to expand fast for years to come. You are not buying it because it is cheap. You are buying it because you believe the business will be much larger in the future, and that tomorrow's profit will justify today's high price.

It matters because, done well, it is how the biggest fortunes in the market are made: a business that compounds its earnings for a decade can turn a steep price into a bargain in hindsight. Done carelessly, it is also how money is lost fastest. When you pay a premium for growth and that growth stumbles, the price falls twice over, once because earnings disappoint and again because the market stops paying a premium at all.

An everyday way to picture it

Imagine two trees for sale in a nursery. One is a mature tree, already tall, that will not grow much more. The other is a young sapling planted in rich soil, sold at a surprisingly high price. Buying the mature tree is the value approach: you pay for what is already there. Buying the sapling is the growth approach: you pay extra now because you expect it to grow into something far larger than the mature tree ever was.

The premium only pays off if the sapling really does grow. If the soil turns out to be poor, or a dry year stunts it, you have overpaid for a small tree. That is the whole trade of growth investing: a high price is a bet on the future, and the future has to actually arrive.

What growth investors look for

A growth investor hunts for a business whose sales and profits are expanding much faster than the wider economy, and that can keep doing so for years rather than a quarter or two. Four things tend to matter most.

What they look forWhy it mattersA healthy sign
Fast, durable earnings growthRising profit, year after year, is the engine that lifts the share price over time.EPS compounding at more than 15 to 20 percent a year, not just one good year.
A long runwayGrowth can only continue if the market is large and far from saturated.A big, expanding addressable market the company has barely begun to capture.
Pricing power and marginsIt lets the company turn extra sales into extra profit instead of just chasing volume.Stable or widening profit margins and a high return on equity.
Reinvestment and a moatProfit ploughed back at high returns compounds, and a moat protects it from rivals.A strong brand or technology, with earnings reinvested rather than all paid out.

The cleanest way to measure that growth is the compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, which smooths several years of earnings into one steady yearly rate. It answers a simple question: at what constant speed would EPS have to grow to get from where it was to where it is now?

EPS growth rate (CAGR):
CAGR = (Ending EPS ÷ Beginning EPS) ^ (1 ÷ Years) - 1

This is why the market hands fast growers a high price-to-earnings ratio. A company growing 25 percent a year will earn far more in five years than one standing still, so investors willingly pay more for each ₹1 of today's profit. The hard question is how much more is too much. A useful sanity check is the PEG ratio, which divides the P/E by the earnings growth rate.

PEG ratio:
PEG = P/E ÷ Earnings Growth Rate (percent)

A PEG around 1 is often seen as fair, below 1 looks cheap for the growth on offer, and well above 2 is a warning that you are paying a lot for growth that now has to arrive exactly on schedule. The two big risks follow directly from that. The first is a growth disappointment, where earnings simply come in slower than hoped. The second is multiple compression, where the market loses its enthusiasm and re-rates the P/E down. They often strike together, which is what makes an expensive growth stock fall so hard.

It helps to see growth investing next to its opposite, value investing, which buys a business for less than it is already worth rather than betting on a fast future.

Growth investingValue investing
The betEarnings will grow fast for yearsPrice sits below what the business is already worth
Typical P/EHighLow
Main riskGrowth disappoints and the P/E re-rates downThe cheapness hides a declining business, a value trap
Where the return comes fromCompounding earningsThe gap between price and value closing

See it for yourself

Pick a starting EPS and a growth rate, hold the P/E steady, and watch where the price could land. The defaults are Sunrise: EPS of ₹20 growing about 12 percent a year at a P/E of 25.

EPS growth rate12% a year
P/E ratio (held steady)25
Starting EPS₹20
Time horizon5 years
Total return over 5 years
+76%
If the P/E holds:
20 EPS grows to ₹35.2, so price = ₹35.2 × 25 = ₹881
Price today: ₹500
Future EPS in 5 years: ₹35.2
Future price: ₹881
Annualized return: 12% a year
PEG: 2.1
Moderate growth

Worked example: Sunrise Foods

Sunrise Foods makes packaged snacks and staples sold across India. It is a steady, profitable consumer brand, the kind of business a beginner can reason about without specialist knowledge.

Sunrise earns ₹20 per share (its ₹200 crore net profit divided by 10 crore shares) and trades at ₹500, a P/E of 25. Its earnings have been growing about 12 percent a year. Dividing the P/E of 25 by that 12 percent growth gives a PEG of roughly 2.1, which tells us a fair amount of future growth is already priced in. Let us watch what happens if that growth keeps up and the market keeps paying the same multiple.

Point in timeEPS (grows about 12% a year)Price if the P/E holds at 25
Today₹20₹500
After 3 years₹28.1₹702
After 5 years₹35.2₹881

At 12 percent a year, Sunrise's EPS roughly doubles over six years, and within five it climbs from ₹20 to about ₹35.2. If the market still pays a P/E of 25, the price rises with it, from ₹500 to about ₹881, a gain of roughly 76 percent. That is the growth investor's hope: earnings and price compounding together, so the high P/E you paid looks reasonable in hindsight.

Your call

The catch is that the ₹881 outcome assumes two things keep going right: the growth and the premium multiple. At a PEG near 2.1, both are already priced in. Do you expect Sunrise to keep compounding, or to stumble?

Remember this

IdeaWhat to hold onto
You pay for the futureGrowth investing buys tomorrow's earnings at today's price. The high P/E is the bet, not the bargain.
Growth must be durableLook for fast, lasting EPS growth, a long runway, pricing power, and a moat that protects it.
PEG is your sanity checkP/E divided by growth. Around 1 is fair, well above 2 means a lot is already priced in.
Two ways to loseGrowth can disappoint, and the multiple can compress. They often strike together and hit hard.
Quality, not hypeBuy real, well-run growth at a sensible price, not a high price chasing a popular story.

In short: growth investing pays a premium for earnings that have not arrived yet. It rewards you richly when the growth is real and durable, and punishes you twice over when it is not.